A farmer, finding himself sliding into debt with production costs exceeding income, figures he can plant a few more acres or buy a few more head of livestock, put in a few more hours each day, and work himself back into prosperity.

It's a natural inclination. Not just for farmers, but for many other business operators.

But the economics at play are such that the more investment and effort he expends, the further into the hole he goes. His work ethic becomes his enemy.

There's an element of futility to this anecdote. Irony, too.

The U.S. Dept. of Agriculture predicts that farm income in Michigan will be down “a staggering 38 percent” from 2008.  For a state already reeling from the loss of manufacturing companies over the last few years and the near demise of General Motors and Chrysler, resulting in the loses of thousands of good-paying jobs and in millions of dollars no longer circulating through the state's economy, this news only adds to the gloomy picture; one that includes record numbers of home foreclosures, unemployment rates of 15 percent, and an increase in both business and personal bankruptcies.

Farmers these days are a sophisticated bunch. They use computers and the Internet to access and analyze information, are knowledgeable about their choices, and have quick access to expert advise. Nevertheless, production decisions made in late winter and early spring, based on what commodity prices might be later in the year are, at times, akin to a gambler rolling his dice at the casino. Their instinct, like many of ours, is to roll them-- do something, anything, rather than to wait and see. Still, wait and see is at times the better part of valor.

“Right now the price of corn is so low that if I sold it, I'd lose $25,000,” Bob told me earlier this summer. “We check the prices out every night on the computer, hoping they go up. It makes you sick, but what do you do?”

Michigan's farm income a year ago (in 2008) rose 67 percent from the previous year to a record high $2.03 billion. Corn and soybean producers led the way. What a difference a year makes.

His main source of income is actually beef cattle.  But that market's depressed, too. The recession has curbed folks' appetite for the more expensive cuts of beef. The global slump has curbed exports as well. In addition, milk prices are so low that the dairymen have been flooding the auction houses with their surplus cattle; some downsizing and some going out of business.

Fewer cattle, of course, further diminishes the demand for corn and soybeans.

There are glimpses of brighter skies. Lower corn prices make ethanol production more profitable. And, of course, the main thrust of future domestic car production is towards more energy-efficient vehicles; ones that utilize alternative fuels as well as electric-producing batteries. The ethanol plant near Lake Odessa, shut down the past couple of years, has been reopened by new owners. They plan to buy 17 million bushes of corn.

A drought in the Western states over the past couple of years resulted in those herds being culled and the USDA is looking at ways to boost the milk prices. With less competition 'out West' and with Holsteins resuming their value as milk producers rather than hamburger, perhaps the prospects for Michigan beef farmers will improve.

“If we can hang on until next year, hopefully it'll bounce back,” Bob said of his prospects.

That's the motto much of Michigan has embraced: farmers, car makers, small businesses, workers, and those looking for a job.